Behavior is a "muscle," not a "skill"
- Skills can be taught, practiced, and improved, but it is an error in category to view behavior as a "skill" per se.
- Controlling one's behavior relies on a number of different executive functions, only a few of which are skills (such as organizational skills).
- Like muscular strength, self-control can be improved despite not being precisely a skill.
- Consequences play an essential role in improving behavior, because they direct effort toward acceptable behaviors.
- Instruction plays only a small role in improving behavior in school, because students largely already possess the knowledge needed to behave appropriately.
The School-To-Prison Pipeline
- The "School-to-Prison Pipeline" (STPP) is a hypothesized causal link between school disciplinary practices and increased risk of incarceration.
- Excessively harsh school discipline practices, such as referring minor behaviors for criminal prosecution, or excluding students from school for long periods of time over minor issues, may plausibly create an STPP effect. However, these practices are increasingly rare, and are easy to identify and eliminate.
- Success in school is generally highly predictive of success in employment, higher education, and other outcomes.
- Virtually all students attend school from an early age—including the small percentage of students who later face incarceration. The "first school, then prison" chronology does not imply a causal relationship.
- Unsurprisingly, research has long found a strong correlation between receiving school discipline and later incarceration, as both are a function of individual behavior.
- Despite many attempts, no studies have demonstrated a causal link between progressive discipline practices and incarceration. The correlation between school-based consequences and incarceration is explained entirely by the common cause of individual behavior.
- Studies of a hypothetical STPP are hampered by the lack of reliable data linking behavior and consequences.
- Most school districts do not systematically collect data on student behavior. In some of the most prominent studies, consequences are used as a proxy for behavior.
- In other studies, data about behavior incidents (such as that collected by NYC DOE) does not distinguish between victims and perpetrators, making it impossible to assess the impact of consequences on later outcomes.
- Efforts to break the STPP that focus on eliminating consequences, rather than reducing behaviors that result in school discipline, are likely to be ineffective while also harming the learning environment.
- There is no evidence that eliminating exclusionary discipline, such as out-of-school suspension, improves students' odds of avoiding incarceration.
Research Review: What Does the Evidence Say?
The School-To-Prison Pipeline Hypothesis
- A great deal of research has examined the correlation between school discipline and negative life outcomes such as earning fewer credits in or graduate from high school, arrest, and incarceration. Not surprisingly, school discipline correlates strongly with other negative outcomes.
- The "School-To-Prison Pipeline" (STPP) is a hypothesized, but unproven, causal relationship between school disciplinary consequences (especially out-of-school suspension, or OSS) and subsequent entanglements with the criminal justice system (e.g. arrest). Whether this relationship is actually causal, not merely correlational, remains unproven.
- Advocates of the school-to-prison pipeline hypothesis have long sought to establish a causal relationship between school disciplinary consequences and negative outcomes, under the assumption that modifying or eliminating such consequences might improve outcomes. However, despite numerous studies, no causal link has been demonstrated, nor have prohibitions against OSS been shown to improve student outcomes.
- Research aiming to establish a causal relationship between school disciplinary consequences and negative outcomes must be designed carefully to distinguish between causation and mere correlation. Many studies suffer from the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy—the assumption that the earlier event caused a subsequent event. Just as a rooster's crow precedes the sunrise but does not cause the sunrise, it is important to distinguish between causal factors and those that merely precede an outcome such as incarceration.
Does Correlation Imply Causation?
- About 35% of students are suspended at some point during their K-12 career. About 50% of students who receive out-of-school suspension are only suspended once, then never again (Shollenberger 2013). This suggests a substantial deterrent effect on both suspended students and peers.
- About 39% of males are arrested at least once by age 28. Fully 25% of males who have never been suspended from school get arrested, but more suspensions are correlated with a greater likelihood of arrest (Shollenberger, 2013). This suggests that while school suspension is strongly predictive of later arrest, the relationship is not causal, but merely a correlation based on the common cause of individual behavior.
- The predictive power of OSS on other outcomes is substantial. Mittleman (2018) states “I estimate that suspended children are two times more likely to experience an adolescent arrest than otherwise similar children.” Shollenberger (2013) found that while 87% of boys who never received OSS graduated from high school, only 64% of those receiving OSS graduated.
A Research Challenge: Lack of Data on Behavior
- One major research challenge in establishing a causal relationship between discipline and outcomes is that STPP studies lack direct measures of an obvious confounder: student behavior. Mittleman (2018) notes that “there are likely to be unobserved factors that govern children’s risk for both suspensions and arrests. If suspensions indicate the crossing of some unmeasured behavioral threshold that divides seemingly similar children, then the suspension itself could still carry few consequences.” Obviously behavior is the primary determining factor in both school discipline and criminal justice.
- Lacking direct data on student behavior, STPP studies use a variety of approaches to isolate the effect of consequences such as OSS. LiCalsi et al. (2021), for example, combined unusually detailed incident records from the NYC Department of Education with separate disciplinary consequence records in an attempt to isolate the effect of consequences. However, the incident data set does not distinguish between perpetrators and victims, establishing a spurious relationship between consequences and other negative outcomes; obviously perpetrators of disciplinary incidents are likely to have worse outcomes than victims.
- Other studies deal with the lack of behavior data by using proxy measures to stand in for unknown quantities. For example, Bacher-Hicks et al. (2021) use a construct they call "school strictness" to attempt to remove behavior from the equation. Not surprisingly, this study reports that "young adolescents who attend [middle] schools with high suspension rates are substantially more likely to be arrested and jailed as adults." However, rather than examine strictness itself—that is, what consequences are given for specific behaviors—"strictness" is assessed based on suspension rate alone, with no direct measure of behavior or how consequences are applied. Clearly, this approach makes it impossible to distinguish the effect of consequences from the effect of behavior on later arrest.